Historical Trends and Future Projections of Key Performance Parameters in Aircraft Design
Abstract
This study presents a comprehensive analysis of historical trends and future projections for key performance parameters (KPPs) in commercial turbofan aircraft, focusing on operational empty weight to maximum takeoff weight ratio (OEW/MTOW), thrust-to-weight ratio (T/W), thrust-specific fuel consumption (TSFC), and lift-to-drag ratio (L/D). Leveraging an extensive dataset of over 400 commercial aircraft and 200 engines, compiled from authoritative sources such as FAA and EASA certifications, along with enhanced regression modeling, this study systematically examines the evolution of each KPP in response to technological advancements, market demands, and regulatory constraints. The analysis reveals that while TSFC improvements align closely with technological advances in engine efficiency, trends in OEW/MTOW, T/W, and L/D reflect complex interactions among performance requirements and aircraft mission profiles. Projections suggest that further gains in these parameters may be limited within conventional aircraft configurations. This work lays a robust foundation for the open-source Future Aircraft Sizing Tool (FAST), equipping designers with data-driven insights to support early-stage design decisions and providing a transparent resource for understanding the historical and technical drivers of commercial aircraft performance.
Hüseyin Acar
PhD student and Graduate Research Assistant
Hüseyin Acar is a Ph.D. candidate at the IDEAS Lab at U-M, focusing on quantifying the benefits and challenges of sustainable aviation technologies.
Maxfield Arnson
PhD Student and Graduate Research Assistant
Maxfield Arnson is a graduate student research assistant in the IDEAS Lab at the University of Michigan.
Michael Tsai
Master’s student and Research Assistant
